By Dan Nowak, Register Staff

Following the AFC championship game two weeks ago, I received about a half dozen e-mails chastising me for picking the Jets to beat Indianapolis.

At one point, the Jets looked like a lock with a 17-6 lead in the second quarter. Unfortunately, rookie coach Rex Ryan and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez — keyword here is rookie — were clueless when it came to taking advantage of that 11-point lead and putting a final nail in the coffin by extending that margin.

So here we are with Indianapolis and New Orleans ready to face off in the Super Bowl with a point spread that has fluctuated up and down and the largest over-under number (56 1/2) ever for a Super Bowl. The line opened at Colts favored by 3 1/2 within minutes after the AFC title game. Then 24 hours later, it jumped to 4 1/2, has gone as high as 6 at some spots and has leveled off at around 5.

At first glance, you have to ask yourself one question — do I have the guts to bet against quarterback Peyton Manning?

Then, as I try to envision how this game will play out, I remember Super Bowl XXXVI. That’s when St. Louis, riding high with Kurt Warner at the helm, was supposed to crush the New England Patriots and were favored by 14 points. The Patriots won that game 20-17. Then there is 2007, when the tables were turned on the Patriots and Tom Brady when the Giants won 17-14 despite being 12 1/2-point underdogs.

My point here is you can’t overlook the underdog in any Super Bowl.

The betting public loved the Colts early on with about 75 percent of the bets going on Indianpolis, which sent the spread upward. But as the heavier wagering started coming in this week, the betting has evolved to a more 50-50 wagering balance.

Betting in Las Vegas has actually increased compared to last year.

“The Super Bowl usually reflects the economy, and this year isn’t any different,” said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook. “Most of the numbers around town (Las Vegas), including hotel reservations, occupancy and parties are up anywhere from 5 percent to 11 percent over last year. With those numbers in mind, we believe the handle will increase over last year as well. We’re hoping for an increase of at least 5 percent.”

Last year’s handle overall at the 176 sportsbooks in Nevada was a disappointing $81.5 million (compared to $92 million in 2008) and a 5-percent increase would be about $86 million. The record handle for Nevada was $94.5 million in 2006 for Super Bowl XL. Continued...

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Linta’s take

NFL player agent Joe Linta of Branford, who represents nearly 40 players including Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco, believes the Super Bowl will be high scoring and close throughout the game.

“The quarterbacks are the main weapons in this game and they both have to deliver,” Linta said. “The big guys make the big plays in the big games. I don’t believe any team will pull away for a big lead in this game.

“This is going to be one of those games where the last team with the ball is going to win. I see the Colts coming out on top 31-28. Actually, the Super Bowl shuffle ad remake is what I’m looking forward to. It’s going to be special and it is going to rule the day.”

TODAY’S GAME

New Orleans vs. Indianapolis (-5): Based on the betting trends, season stats and talent on both sides, you can make an argument for either team to cover against the spread. Because defensive end Dwight Freeney of Bloomfield is questionable with an ankle injury, I see the Colts defense susceptible to big scoring plays in this spot. I also see Manning carving up the weak Saints defense. Here are the two key numbers for me. Favorites are 2-6 ATS in the last eight Super Bowls and, according to footballforecaster.com, the team with the best record in the last 14 Super Bowls is 1-11-2 ATS. I see Colts winning, Saints covering ATS. Nowak’s pick: Colts 31-27.

Dan Nowak can be reached at dnowak@newhavenregister.com.

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